PhD thesis

My PhD thesis exploring the (re-)emergence and expansion of dengue in Brazil during the 21st century. Uses a combination of novel and established spatio-temporal modelling techniques to explore the impact of climate and human movement.

A Bayesian modelling framework to quantify multiple sources of spatial variation for disease mapping

A paper developing a novel Bayesian spatial modelling framework that is able to quantify the relative contribution of multiple sources of spatial variation in disease mapping. Simulation studies show the model performed at least as well as the current standard identified in a systematic review.

The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil

Modelling study that found geographical borders to dengue outbreaks in South Brazil and the western Amazon are being eroded. Increased odds of dengue outbreaks were associated with an increase in temperature, high urbanisation, and high connectivity to the urban network of Brazil.

Spatial connectivity in mosquito-borne disease models: a systematic review of methods and assumptions

A systematic review that identified any spatial model (statistical, mathematical or machine learning) used to explore transmission of modquito-borne disease to humans. Contains a detailed explanation of the model types, approaches used to account for spatial connectivity, and the assumptions authors made about how spatial connectivity arises in these models.

Emerging arboviruses in the urbanized Amazon rainforest

An article compiling evidence of the devestating impact deforestation, climate change, and extreme weather events has had on increased arboviruses in the Brazilian Amazon